What the Expansion of Wind and Solar Generation Means for Power Pricing Options -

CPV RETAIL BLOG

April 8, 2026

What the Expansion of Wind and Solar Generation Means for Power Pricing Options

By: Bob Barron, VP of Energy Management, CPV

The recent events in the Middle East highlight the importance of supply optionality and flexibility in power generation, with Asia and Europe taking the brunt of the rapid price escalations. The impact on power prices have been diminished by the expansion of wind and solar across the power grid in Europe in particular.

Wind and solar are making a big difference

In 2025, wind and solar generated 30% more electricity than fossil fuels for the first time, which has helped shield European countries from fossil fuel volatility.

New York is going through a similar shift

New York’s power system is slowly changing from being busiest in the summer to being busiest in the winter, over the next 15 to 20 years. This is mainly because more homes are switching to electric heating and more people are expected to drive electric vehicles.

Solar can help control future energy bills

With advances in solar technology helping drive costs lower, the combination of more localized installations in areas particularly vulnerable to natural gas price volatility will help better contain retail prices as demand grows.

A winter peaking system will likely be subjected to higher prices of delivered natural gas and thus elevated power bills to consumers which localized solar installations can help mitigate. The state of New York has already set aggressive decarbonization goals, which has led to the retirement of certain fossil fuel assets which has brought the reserve margin lower.

As these resources leave the system, carbon free assets did not keep pace, which has led to the current shift up in prices. Balancing environmental goals with system reliability is not an easy task, especially in an environment with rapid load growth. As the per/MW price drops for renewables, including solar, developing pricing flexibility for retail customers is even more important.

Why this matters for retail customers

As renewable energy gets more affordable, utilities and suppliers need more flexible pricing options to help customers manage volatility and rising demand.

PJM Regulatory Review

PJM’s Independent Market Monitor had filed a complaint to FERC regarding large load interconnect requests without complementary generation resources to fulfill the associated demand increase. The FERC concluded that PJM’s existing tariff was adequate and “just and reasonable” and thus denied the complaint.

Constellation is seeking support from regulators to speed the approval process necessary to allow Three Mile Island, under the new name Crane Clean Energy Center, to begin generating power sooner than the recent 2031 date put forth by PJM.

NYISO Regulatory Review

Critical items that require addressing before the upcoming capacity auction include the Combined Cycle Modeling Update and other critical parameters important for the Demand Curve Reset.

Several open issues that require attention by the NYISO are the following: treatment of large load interconnect requests, demand response performance from this past winter, renewable development status, the 4 GW of nuclear build-out, and the Canadian power import status.

Market Drivers

Market Drivers as of April 3, 2026.

Gas Storage/Year over year difference. A positive number is bearish, and a negative number is bullish.
Production /Year over year growth/trend is important in the context of demand growth.
LNG Exports/Year over year growth means demand is growing and should be looked at in comparison to production trend.
Mexican Exports/Add to LNG Exports to show a trend in exports compared to the production trend.
PJM Outages- generally seasonal in Spring or Fall/Can support short-term prices.
Gas Focused Rig Count/Is drilling increasing to grow production versus demand growth. This can be seen as impacting price in the future based on expected load growth.

Energy Market Update

U.S. Natural gas prices are low right now. Despite the conflict in the Middle East, U.S. natural gas prices are considered low, as shoulder season weather coupled with strong production has pushed cash prices below $2.0/MMBtu and NYMEX prices below $3.0/MMBtu.
Electricity prices are also staying low (for now). With natural gas prices, power prices have been pushed lower with the help of the weakness in cash prices, even as maintenance outages have pushed above 50,000 MW, which is normal for this time of year.
Oil prices are a different story. Oil prices remain the focus of commodity traders, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) gapped higher on Thursday, and ended the day higher by $11/BBL and well above Brent, which is highly unusual and signal a preference for U.S. crude among global buyers.
Global gas markets are still strained. Outside the U.S., global LNG prices appear to be stabilizing, albeit at prices elevated to cause demand destruction, with Asia and Europe pushed further into reliance on coal and alternatives to LNG.

Even with global instability, U.S. gas and power prices remain low due to strong supply, while oil and international gas markets are under much more pressure.